Decision Making for Inconsistent Expert Judgments Using Negative Probabilities

In this paper we provide a simple random-variable example of inconsistent information, and analyze it using three different approaches: Bayesian, quantum-like, and negative probabilities. We then show that, at least for this particular example, both the Bayesian and the quantum-like approaches have less normative power than the negative probabilities one.Comment: 14 pages, revised version to appear in the Proceedings of the QI2013 (Quantum Interactions) conferenc

A bioinformatics framework for management and analysis of high throughput CGH microarray projects

High throughput experimental techniques have revolutionised biological research; these techniques enable researchers, in an unbiased fashion to survey entire biological systems such as all the somatic mutations in a tumour in a single experiment. Due to the often complex informatics demands of these techniques, robust computational solutions are required to ensure high quality reproducible results are generated. The challenge of this thesis was to develop such a computational solution for the management and analysis of high throughput microarray Comparative Genomic Hybridisation (aCGH) projects. This task also provided an opportunity to test the hypothesis that agile software development approaches are well suited for bioinformatics projects and that formalised development practices produce better quality software. This is an important question as formalised software development practices have been underused so far in the eld of bioinformatics. This thesis describes the development and application of a bioinformatics framework for the management and analysis of microarray CGH projects. The framework includes: a Laboratory Information Management System (LIMS) that manages and records all aspects of microarray CGH experimentation; a set of easy to use visualisation tools for aCGH experimental data; and a suite of object oriented Perl modules providing a exible way to construct data pipelines quickly using the statistical programming language R for quality control, normalisation and analysis. In order to test the framework, it was successfully applied in the aCGH pro ling of 94 ovarian tumour samples. Subsequent analysis of these data identi ed 4 well supported genomic regions which appear to in uence patient survival. The evaluation of agile practices implemented in this thesis has demonstrated that they are well suited to the development of bioinformatics solutions as they enable developers to react to the changes of this rapidly evolving eld, to create successful software solutions such as the bioinformatics framework presented here

Immortal-time bias in older vs younger age groups: a simulation study with application to a population-based cohort of patients with colon cancer

BACKGROUND: In observational studies, the risk of immortal-time bias (ITB) increases with the likelihood of early death, itself increasing with age. We investigated how age impacts the magnitude of ITB when estimating the effect of surgery on 1-year overall survival (OS) in patients with Stage IV colon cancer aged 50–74 and 75–84 in England. METHODS: Using simulations, we compared estimates from a time-fixed exposure model to three statistical methods addressing ITB: time-varying exposure, delayed entry and landmark methods. We then estimated the effect of surgery on OS using a population-based cohort of patients from the CORECT-R resource and conducted the analysis using the emulated target trial framework. RESULTS: In simulations, the magnitude of ITB was larger among older patients when their probability of early death increased or treatment was delayed. The bias was corrected using the methods addressing ITB. When applied to CORECT-R data, these methods yielded a smaller effect of surgery than the time-fixed exposure approach but effects were similar in both age groups. CONCLUSION: ITB must be addressed in all longitudinal studies, particularly, when investigating the effect of exposure on an outcome in different groups of people (e.g., age groups) with different distributions of exposure and outcomes

Health Economic Studies of Colorectal Cancer and the Contribution of a National Administrative Data Repository: a Systematic Review

Introduction: Several forces are contributing to an increase in the number of people living with and surviving colorectal cancer (CRC). However, due to the lack of available data, little is known about the implications of these forces. In recent years, the use of administrative records to inform research has been increasing. The aim of this paper is to investigate the potential contribution that administrative data could have on the health economic research of CRC. Methods: To achieve this aim, we conducted a systematic review of the health economic CRC literature published in the United Kingdom and Europe within the last decade (2009–2019). Results: Thirty-seven relevant studies were identified and divided into economic evaluations, cost of illness studies and cost consequence analyses. Conclusions: The use of administrative data, including cancer registry, screening and hospital records, within the health economic research of CRC is commonplace. However, we found that this data often come from regional databases, which reduces the generalisability of results. Further, administrative data appear less able to contribute towards understanding the wider and indirect costs associated with the disease. We explore several ways in which various sources of administrative data could enhance future research in this area

Methods of classification for women undergoing induction of labour: a systematic review and novel classification system

OBJECTIVE To develop and demonstrate the applicability of a classification system for induction of labour (IOL) that fulfils recognised classification system attributes for clinical, surveillance and research purposes. DESIGN Proof of concept. SETTING, POPULATION Applicability demonstrated in a population cohort of 909,702 maternities in New South Wales, Australia, 2002-2011. METHODS A multidisciplinary collaboration developed a classification system through a systematic literature review, development of a clinically logical model, and presentation to stakeholders for feedback and refinement. Classification factors included parity (nulliparous, parous), previous caesarean section (CS), gestational age (≤36, 37-38, 39-40, ≥41 weeks gestation), number (singleton, multiple) and presentation of the fetus (cephalic, non-cephalic). We determined: the size of each classification group, the contribution each group made to overall IOL rates, and within-group IOL rates (calculated as proportions of all maternities, all maternities excluding prelabour CS and of all continuing maternities). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Applicability of IOL classification using routinely collected obstetric data. RESULTS A 10 group classification system was developed. Of all maternities, 25.4% were induced. Nulliparous and parous women without a prior CS at 39-40 weeks gestation with a singleton cephalic-presenting fetus were the largest groups (21.2% and 24.5% respectively) and accounted for the highest proportion of all IOL (20.7% and 21.5% respectively). The highest within group IOL rates were for nullipara (53.8%) and multipara (45.5%) ≥41 weeks gestation. CONCLUSION We propose a classification system for IOL that has the attributes of simplicity and clarity, utilises information that is readily and reliably collected and reported, and enables standard characterisation of populations of women having an IOL.NHMRC 1021025, ARC FT12010006

Association between congenital toxoplasmosis and preterm birth, low birthweight and small for gestational age birth.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between congenital toxoplasmosis and preterm birth, low birthweight and small for gestational age birth. DESIGN: Multicentre prospective cohort study. SETTING: Ten European centres offering prenatal screening for toxoplasmosis. POPULATION: Deliveries after 23 weeks of gestation in 386 women with singleton pregnancies who seroconverted to toxoplasma infection before 20 weeks of gestation. Deliveries after 36 weeks in 234 women who seroconverted at 20 weeks or later, and tested positive before 37 weeks. METHODS: Comparison of infected and uninfected births, adjusted for parity and country of birth. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Differences in gestational age at birth, birthweight and birthweight centile. RESULTS: Infected babies were born or delivered earlier than uninfected babies: the mean difference for seroconverters before 20 weeks was -5.4 days (95% CI: -1.4, -9.4), and at 20 weeks or more, -2.6 days (95% CI: -0.5, -4.7). Congenital infection was associated with an increased risk of preterm delivery when seroconversion occurred before 20 weeks (OR 4.71; 95% CI: 2.03, 10.9). No significant differences were detected for birthweight or birthweight centile. CONCLUSION: Babies with congenital toxoplasmosis were born earlier than uninfected babies but the mechanism leading to shorter length of gestation is unknown. Congenital infection could precipitate early delivery or prompt caesarean section or induction of delivery. We found no evidence for a significant association between congenital toxoplasmosis and reduced birthweight or small for gestational age birth

Superconductivity in Cu_xTiSe_2

Charge density waves (CDWs) are periodic modulations of the conduction electron density in solids. They are collective states that arise from intrinsic instabilities often present in low dimensional electronic systems. The layered dichalcogenides are the most well-studied examples, with TiSe_2 one of the first CDW-bearing materials known. The competition between CDW and superconducting collective electronic states at low temperatures has long been held and explored, and yet no chemical system has been previously reported where finely controlled chemical tuning allows this competition to be studied in detail. Here we report how, upon controlled intercalation of TiSe_2 with Cu to yield Cu_xTiSe_2, the CDW transition is continuously suppressed, and a new superconducting state emerges near x = 0.04, with a maximum T_c of 4.15 K found at x = 0.08. Cu_xTiSe_2 thus provides the first opportunity to study the CDW to Superconductivity transition in detail through an easily-controllable chemical parameter, and will provide new insights into the behavior of correlated electron systems.Comment: Accepted to Nature Physic

Domestic ventilation rates, indoor humidity and dust mite allergens : are our homes causing the asthma pandemic?

This paper is concerned with historical changes in domestic ventilation rates, relative humidity and the associated risk of house dust mite colonization. A controlled trial evaluated allergen and water vapour control measures on the level of house dust mite (HDM) Der p1 allergen and indoor humidity, concurrently with changes in lung function in 54 subjects who completed the protocol. Mechanical heat recovery ventilation units significantly reduced moisture content in the active group, while HDM allergen reservoirs in carpets and beds were reduced by circa 96%. Self reported health status confirmed a significant clinical improvement in the active group. The study can form the basis for assessing minimum winter ventilation rates that can suppress RH below the critical ambient equilibrium humidity of 60% and thus inhibit dust mite colonization and activity in temperate and maritime in' uenced climatic regions

Black Holes in Modified Gravity (MOG)

The field equations for Scalar-Tensor-Vector-Gravity (STVG) or modified gravity (MOG) have a static, spherically symmetric black hole solution determined by the mass $M$ with two horizons. The strength of the gravitational constant is $G=G_N(1+\alpha)$ where $\alpha$ is a parameter. A regular singularity-free MOG solution is derived using a nonlinear field dynamics for the repulsive gravitational field component and a reasonable physical energy-momentum tensor. The Kruskal-Szekeres completion of the MOG black hole solution is obtained. The Kerr-MOG black hole solution is determined by the mass $M$, the parameter $\alpha$ and the spin angular momentum $J=Ma$. The equations of motion and the stability condition of a test particle orbiting the MOG black hole are derived, and the radius of the black hole photosphere and the shadows cast by the Schwarzschild-MOG and Kerr-MOG black holes are calculated. A traversable wormhole solution is constructed with a throat stabilized by the repulsive component of the gravitational field.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures. Upgraded version of paper to match published version in European Physics Journal

What do we know about emotional labour in nursing? A narrative review

Nurses have to manage their emotions and the expression of emotion to perform best care, and their behaviours pass through emotional labour (EL). However, EL seems to be an under-appreciated aspect of caring work and there is no synthetic portrait of literature about EL in the nursing profession. This review was conducted to synthesise and to critically analyse the literature in the nursing field related to EL. Twenty-seven papers were included and analysed with a narrative approach, where two main themes were found: EL strategies and EL antecedents and consequences. Hence, EL is a multidimensional, complex concept and it represents a nursing competence to provide the best care. Moreover, nurses have a high awareness of EL as a professional competence, which is a fundamental element to balance engagement with an appropriate degree of detachment to accomplish tasks for best practice, and to provide high-quality patient care